Global Market Roundup - Buy or Sell?|
by Peter Cherry
Investmentwarehouse.com announced the following
comments and summary of the most important market sectors
on 29 November 2003. The views expressed here are those
of InvestmentWarehouse.Com at this time. Investors
should always be aware that investments can fall as well
as rise in value.
US Equity - The US economy shows signs of revival and
stocks continue to rise in many sectors. Economic data is
positive however this may be due to the Fed pumping
liquidity into the system. The US Dollar looks set to
remain weak or weaken further. Our survey shows more
bears than bulls t this time though the rise may continue
for a while. Position: Hold to Sell
UK Equity - stock prices buoyant and there are still
bargains to be had. The bank of England rate rise confirms
their belief that the recovery had set in properly.
Although much of the easy money may have been made already
good fund managers should perform well over the next year.
Position Hold to Buy
European Equity - The fall of the Dollar against the Euro
could stall recovery in Europe. However, stagnant economic
growth in the first half of the year has now passed to
recovery and once unemployment falls a mood of quite
optimism will prevail. Position Hold to Buy
Japanese Equity - Foreign capital is flowing towards the
Nikkei as the economy shows signs of good growth (buoyed by
the government). Still lots of trouble in the banking
sector but exporters shares on the rise. Position:
Emerging Markets Equity - Russia now upgraded to investment
grade by Moody's, Brazil probably next in line. Eastern
European stocks recently enjoyed a huge surge, then a small
fall. In general emerging market funds have been excellent
performers of late and the future looks bright. Position:
US Bonds - If the equity markets fall then bonds will
rally, otherwise avoid. Position: Sell
UK Bonds - had a good year to be sure and institutional
buyers mean that demand outstrips supply. Sterling bonds
look like a hold for US Dollar portfolios and a probably
slow sell for Sterling investors. Position: Cautious
Technology - there are signs that the recent technology
boom may turn around soon, watch the sector carefully and
be prepared to bail out. The Nasdaq has risen 70% over the
last year. Ericsson shares are up 250% etcetera. Still,
our position is a Hold to Buy (but with caution). US Tech
stocks look relatively cheap with a weaker Dollar.
China - a miracle growth story, fund sector average rose
42% so far in 2003.
China could overtake the USA within 50 years and last year
overtook the UK contributing 5% of global exports.
Domestic consumption is stable with a growing wealthy
middle class, buying electronic good and even motor cars.
Manufacturing is cheap and efficient. Position: Buy
Far East and Pacific - Growth is beginning to gather pace
and the weak US Dollar helps. We foresee steady, even
spectacular, growth in the region. Sector average is +32%
over one year, not to be sneezed at. Position: Buy
Conclusion: Plenty of opportunities for the investor here
since investor confidence is returning and that alone will
drive the markets for some time. Regular reviews of
holdings and the ability to move speedily will still be
required. Hopefully real stock values will catch up on
prices in time as recovery sets in solidly. Investors
with a broad based portfolio should not expect huge gains
but careful management should give solid returns. There
will be some big gainers in the next 12 months for those
with nerve and verve.
This article courtesy of http://www.investment-index.com.
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